https://hailcat.app/blog/ Retirement questions run through a Monte Carlo engine. Worked examples with real projected outcomes. en-us Fri, 18 Sep 2026 21:14:06 +0000 https://hailcat.app/blog/how-higher-rates-affect-annuity-pricing.html https://hailcat.app/blog/how-higher-rates-affect-annuity-pricing.html Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 Corporate bond yields rose about one percentage point over the past year. We price the effect on annuity income at every age from 60 to 80, and work through who partial annuitization suits and who it does not. Interest Rates Lifetime Income https://hailcat.app/blog/what-spending-guardrails-cost.html https://hailcat.app/blog/what-spending-guardrails-cost.html Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 We model dynamic spending guardrails on one retiree's plan at eleven cut allowances, from 0 to 50 percent of her budget: the success rate climbs from 68 to 84 percent and levels off, while the average lifetime spending cut grows to $124,000. Dynamic Spending Strategy https://hailcat.app/blog/is-the-4-percent-rule-safe.html https://hailcat.app/blog/is-the-4-percent-rule-safe.html Sun, 16 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 Bengen now says 4.7 percent, Morningstar says 3.9. We took the classic 4 percent rule and graded it for three retirees at 50, 65, and 75: twenty runs of 2,000 simulated lifetimes, at withdrawal rates from 3 to 6 percent and starting ages from 50 to 75. Rules Of Thumb Withdrawal Rates https://hailcat.app/blog/what-a-22-percent-social-security-cut-does-to-your-plan.html https://hailcat.app/blog/what-a-22-percent-social-security-cut-does-to-your-plan.html Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 The 2026 Trustees Report puts the retirement fund's depletion in late 2032, with 78 percent of benefits payable after. We ran the cut through 2,000 simulated lifetimes at claim ages 62, 67, and 70. It flips the claiming decision. Current Events Social Security https://hailcat.app/blog/what-is-ai-going-to-do-to-my-retirement-plans.html https://hailcat.app/blog/what-is-ai-going-to-do-to-my-retirement-plans.html Sun, 02 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 The research says AI is ending some careers early. We ran the household math: 5,000 simulated lifetimes for a 57-year-old who just lost the job, every repair from spending cuts to Social Security timing, plus a full AI-economy scenario. Current Events Career Risk https://hailcat.app/blog/porting-a-financial-model.html https://hailcat.app/blog/porting-a-financial-model.html Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 Porting a Python retirement Monte Carlo engine to Swift, and the three pieces of correctness infrastructure that kept it faithful: an exact-match oracle, a decoupling discipline, and a frozen seed schedule. Under The Hood Engineering https://hailcat.app/blog/retiring-at-55-the-62600-tightrope.html https://hailcat.app/blog/retiring-at-55-the-62600-tightrope.html Sun, 26 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 Early retirement math obsesses over withdrawal rates. The decade that actually decides the plan is health insurance from 55 to 65. We built the household and ran 5,000 lifetimes. Early Retirement Health Insurance https://hailcat.app/blog/taking-social-security-at-62-or-70.html https://hailcat.app/blog/taking-social-security-at-62-or-70.html Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 Our first post. Why we built a retirement planner, and what its Monte Carlo engine actually says about claiming Social Security at 62 versus waiting until 70. First Post Social Security